NFL Super Bowl XLIV – Spread Betting Line Props and Total Points Betting Picks
Posted on February 4, 2010 by John Trevors for Luckyroom.com
As the Super Bowl game between New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts is approaching fast we have made an analysis of the offered spread bets and the offered total match points bet using American and Decimal odds as US and Europe use a different type of odds system. It is to be made clear that punters or sports betting fans who believe that New Orleans can win the game, should choose the money line with an offer up to +165 (2.65). Do not mess with the total points or the spread.
To begin with the spread bet analysis; we must note that the standard spread betting points bet is currently +5 points at Saints favor or -5 against the Colts. This gives us a factor of -110 (1.91) which is not bad at all but it involves a high risk as both teams are very similar. Our opinion is that in a Super Bowl final there are a lot more than just the performance of individual players. We shouldn’t ignore the fact that New Orleans is winning one game after the other – as Colts do of course – but the Saints are holding the records for the best scoring offence and the best defense.
Another very interesting Spread Bet proposition is the one that offers +3.5 points in Saints favor. The factor for that bet is +120 (2.20) for the Saints and -140 (1.71) for the Colts. This is a good bet for all those who believe that the two teams are evenly matched and there will be a close game. After all, Saints won their last game in Overtime with just 3 points difference.
Now, moving to Indianapolis Colts side, one very interesting and high profitable spread betting proposition is the one of -7.5 points. This has a factor of +140 (2.40) and suits to the game style of Colts that score way more points that they concede. You can stretch that bet up to -10.5 points if you want where the betting factor is +190 (2.90).
Switching bet type now and going to the Over / Under total points the standard offered bet is the one of the 56.5 points with a factor of -110 (1.91) but our predictions indicate that the match will go either Under 48.5 points +230 (3.30) or Over 64.5 +200 (3.00) . We will see either a very tight game or a very loose one.
If you want to place a minimum risk bet, then a good choice will be the bet of over 48.5 total points with a factor of -270 (1.37) or the bet of Under of 60.5 with a factor of -170 (1.59).
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