The Asian Block Recovers
Posted on December 22, 2009 by Shay Greenberg for Luckyroom.com
The Asian economies were able to quickly overcome the international crisis and to lead efforts for global recovery. 2010 is planned to “run” with impressive growth rates. However, analysts warn that political risks could overshadow the economic ‘miracle’ of the region. Investors have turned a look at North Korea. Nevertheless, possible turmoil in the country which is plagued by serious questions about the health of President Kim Jong Il might see the economy to be faltering, which could trigger instability across the region.
It is also visible, according to political analysts, that there is a risk of an escalation of confrontation between India and Pakistan the two nuclear powers in the region. Such a development could lead investors to “stampede” from Asia. Hidden dangers, however, and the manipulations of governments in the region around the so-called recovery plans; China and other Asian economies spent huge sums on measures to support the economy and aid operations. The question now is when and how quickly we withdraw these exceptional measures. A premature withdrawal would jeopardize the recovery of the global economy, and any delay would risk a new bubble.
The most crucial, however, remain the progress of Asia and the world economy as a whole factor and likely developments in Sino-American relations. China’s economy in 2010 is expected to exceed in size the Japanese, winning second place after the U.S. Analysts point out that this new «G2» team will play a key role in international economic developments, not only over the next decade, but possibly by the end of the 21st century. It is therefore important to have available consultation and reciprocal concessions by both sides.
The “thorn” in their relations in recent years, the yuan-dollar rate. Washington accuses Beijing directly that it keeps the yuan deliberately undervalued to give impetus to exports of Chinese products and the next year. The next year, when the U.S. economy will be striving to keep growth on track, the U.S. should increase pressure for greater appreciation of Chinese currency. Beijing, for its part, does not appear willing to change policy, thereby risking lower growth rates.
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