What to expect in 2010
Posted on January 4, 2010 by Shay Greenberg for Luckyroom.com
The last decade was marked by severe turbulence and a succession of surprises (mostly unpleasant) to governments, regulators and investors. We all hope that the new decade will be characterized more calm. The changes of the painful financial crisis of recent will begin as early as 2010 as speculated by financial firms and financial journals. The common denominator of these changes will result in smaller sizes: less growth, less turbulence and lower returns for investors, and less involvement of the financial system in the economy.
Banks are already in the procedure of making significant reforms in the regulatory and supervisory framework of the financial system. The banks will be confronted with more stringent operating conditions and higher capital adequacy requirements. The new arrangements promoted are expected to result in the gradual reduction of leverage and thus reduced the share of financial services in the economy. It should not be excluded to look at the splitting of large financial institutions to smaller businesses, which focus either on traditional banking (deposits – loans) or in investment banking.
2010 and the whole new decade will be characterized by less volatility and moderate returns. Those who convert to shares can expect better days in contrast to the period 2000-09. However, as companies and countries will seek to reduce their debts, which swelled in recent years, expectations can only be limited. The indisputable winner of the last decade were emerging economies. 2010 is expected to lead the recovery of the global economy, “running” at a much faster pace than the developed industrial economies. But they have before them a great threat to the creation of a bubble in equity markets and their property. It is important to note that analysts warn of risk especially in the case of China despite the traces of quick recovery.
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